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Oct 14, 2020

it's ludicrous how few people know about this paper, so, friendly reminder that the fermi paradox was completely resolved in 2018 and it turned out to be because multiplying point estimates of highly uncertain parameters is very bad actually arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

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roon

@tszzl

Oct 14, 2020

tbh i think the lognormal speculation distribution is less stupid but still misses the point

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roon

@tszzl

Oct 14, 2020

like QC says, the long tail is because the parameter for "how likely is life to form on an earthlike planet" is basically a fantasy parameter that stretches over 200 orders of magnitude, and I doubt even that estimate is accurate

QC (in Berlin 7/29-??? w/ COVID

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and

this is a fair point

8:30 PM · Oct 14, 2020Twitter for iPad

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