it's ludicrous how few people know about this paper, so, friendly reminder that the fermi paradox was completely resolved in 2018 and it turned out to be because multiplying point estimates of highly uncertain parameters is very bad actually
arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
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That summary of it is completely wrong.
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care to elaborate? i admit that “completely resolved” is hyperbolic but i agree with the authors that much of the “paradox” is not particularly paradoxical anymore
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We always knew that it could be "resolved" by postulating strong enough early filter steps. Many of us have also known that you add logs when you multiply numbers.
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right, okay, so those are two quite different issues. the second point i think is nowhere to be found in most discussions of the fermi paradox so at least there's a science communication / exposition problem here. as to the first point i guess you take issue with the authors...
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