it's ludicrous how few people know about this paper, so, friendly reminder that the fermi paradox was completely resolved in 2018 and it turned out to be because multiplying point estimates of highly uncertain parameters is very bad actually
arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
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You are too kind. I don't think we resolved the question of whether there is anything out there, but we did dissolve some of the tension underlying the "paradox".
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it’s a great paper anders! that 10^{-200} lower bound on the probability of abiogenesis is very wild but on the other hand i can’t confidently argue that it should be much higher 😅
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We had a discussion on whether to use Tegmark's argument about stochastic repetitions of observable universe inside spatially infinite universes to get solid lower bound around 10^(-10^118) or so, but it felt a bit ridiculous. If you find a way of raising the bound, please tell!
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