I have a new pet peeve: the faux precision with which @FiveThirtyEight predicts elections that are many months away.
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Replying to @benjaminwittes
Right now, the site says HRC has a 53.2% chance of winning. Does
@NateSilver538 really know how to distinguish that from a 53.7% chance?2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes -
Replying to @benjaminwittes
Come to think of it, does
@NateSilver538 really know how to distinguish a 53% chance of winning in July from a 57% chance of winning?2 replies 2 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @benjaminwittes
All it means as I understand is that of 10,000 simulations she won that %. We read too much into it.
@benjaminwittes@NateSilver5381 reply 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @Profepps @NateSilver538
yes, I agree that's what he means, but that's not what the site says in a big banner across the top.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
Replying to @benjaminwittes @NateSilver538
it's bizarre how anything expressed in numbers can end up fooling even the people who generate it.
10:18 AM - 26 Jul 2016
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