For background, our first paper, published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution in 2017, found that economics plays a key role in the construction of walls.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002715596776 …
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Namely, building walls seem primarily to be motivated by a desire to stop the "negative externalities" associated with sharing a border with a relatively poorer country. Stated differently, they are primarily about stopping illegal immigration and flows of illicit goods.
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The idea is perfectly captured by
@realDonaldTrumphttps://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1088058726794387456?lang=en …Prikaži ovu nit -
In other words, the motivations behind building a wall between
&
appear to be the norm, rather than the exceptionhttps://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1081745940938137606 …
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We uncovered this by collecting our own data on when countries had built border walls (here is a portion of the complete list. You can access our full data -- and the data by others, such as
@Geopolitics2020, here: http://www.paulpoast.com/walls-replication-page/ …)pic.twitter.com/FvMCAUZjP9
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Our new paper reverses the question: rather than the economic CAUSES of border walls, we want to understand the economic EFFECTS of border walls.
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We were especially intrigued by stories such as the following
@Reuters report, where the Republican mayor of McAllen, TX voiced concern that a border wall could harm the local economyhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shutdown-mcallen/in-texas-border-town-skepticism-ahead-of-trump-visit-to-push-wall-idUSKCN1P416F …Prikaži ovu nit -
David and I wondered: could such effects scale up? Is it possible that border walls will harm overall trade between countries?
Stated differently, could the wall harm "legal flows", not just "illegal flows"?Prikaži ovu nit -
Conceptually, we drew on the well established idea in economics of "border effects", as described by
@HonJohnMcCallum in his famous 1995@AEAjournals piece https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2118191.pdf?seq=1 …pic.twitter.com/rdVBwYFCOH
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The idea behind "border effects" is that borders suppress tradepic.twitter.com/9vqF7uZezj
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It would seem sensible to expect a border wall to heighten such border effects. The effect might be larger or it might be small, but we expect it to be real.
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Why should walls suppress trade? We put forward a few reasons, but they boil down to 1) resource diversion for building & maintaining the wall; 2) diverting illegal flows into legal ports of entry; & 3) symbolic factors - building a wall is not a great way to say "welcome"
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To find out if walls reduce overall trade flows, we need data on, well...overall trade flows. We use the post-1948 data described in this
@cmpseditors piece...https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0738894209343887 …Prikaži ovu nit -
...and the pre-1948 data compiled by Gowa and Hicks and introduced in their 2013
@IntOrgJournal articlehttps://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/politics-institutions-and-trade-lessons-of-the-interwar-era/6B634FD11D54E125E519FADAB44EB619 …Prikaži ovu nit -
We estimate the relationship between wall construction and trade flows using the standard "gravity model" of trade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade …pic.twitter.com/LMDHBOPHjs
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More precisely, we rely upon the "gravity model" specification (with "multilateral resistance") suggested by James E Anderson in his
@AnnualReviews piece:https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-111809-125114 …Prikaži ovu nit -
What did we find? In a nutshell, lots of negative coefficients and lots of stars!pic.twitter.com/mNAL7Jeonq
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More precisely, the baseline model finds that building a border wall is associated with an ~30 percent reduction in trade.
Wall 
TradePrikaži ovu nit -
Of course, those who are into "causal identification" should immediately be sounding the alarm! We agree, which is why we totally acknowledge that something spurious could be present.pic.twitter.com/3KdaEjpDLa
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That led us to conduct a host of sensitivity analyses in order to gauge the likely influence of an omitted confounder.pic.twitter.com/5R91rWR3xh
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In particular, we used the sensitivity analysis offered by
@ProfEmilyOster in her 2017 Journal of Business and Economics Statistics piecehttps://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711#.XjccASN7mM8 …Prikaži ovu nit -
So our findings are by no means definitive and we hope others will build on them. But they do strongly suggest that building border walls can impact BOTH illegal AND legal trade! [END]
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