Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465075561236250631 …
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As long as the virus is able to infect more people before it kills its host (i.e. higher viral loads make them more ill AND spreads more, but the latter happens before the former), lethality has no relationship with it. In fact, if it's viral load the driver, it'll be both.
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A virus doesn't plan, has no notion of profit, doesn't know it's killing its host, it just reproduces itself. Is the virus able to reproduce? If the answer is yes, what eventually happens to the host doesn't matter.
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It’s not merely whether it can reproduce, but whether severe outcomes sufficiently limit that ability. Infectiousness and severe outcomes are very separated in sars-cov2, hence there is little selection pressure either way for virulence.
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How long do you suppose the virus spends thinking about this when it's weighing its options before deciding how it will mutate?
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I think you’re confusing viruses for capitalists.
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Easy mistake to make though, to be fair.
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You can't back a virus off with the threat of mutually assured destruction. Virus does not care. Virus has no motivations whatsoever. It will spread if it can spread.
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You don't get selective pressure against killing off hosts until enough hosts have actually died to hinder opportunity to infect below R1. That's a LOT of deaths, you realize. A catastrophic number of deaths.
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