Vote more nationalized plus a shift in party advantage in the House
Fit tightens from 2000-2020:
.53,.63,.63, .73, .73, .93 (!)
Expected House D-R margin if Pres ties in the district was
2000-08: +1.68, +1.90, +4.78
But
2012-20: -3.39, -3.39, -1.95
Thx for data
Conversation
Does this take into consideration some of the uncontested House races ? Cuz i'm guessing some of the "outliers" are just that.
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The uncontested and weakly contested races are most of the outliers. Removing them would tighten the fits a bit.
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Thanks, Charles! Data here:
While Ted Cruz was sunning in Mexico and then doing interviews,AOC was raising money for relief in Texas. news.yahoo.com/aoc-announces-
Just found this while searching around for graphs illustrating tighter fit between congressional and presidential elections. Excited to talk about it with the undergrads in my Elections class today.
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