So we are voting only based on national politics? Are all politics no longer local?
Retweeting for non-PoliSci folks. Incumbency advantage has been falling for a while. This from Jacobson (the leading scholar on the subject) is a solid & striking finding, changing how we think of forces in congressional races.https://twitter.com/DaveAHopkins/status/1114274020478914562 …
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More than in the past partisanship drives decisions and is a national rather than local or regional identification. Also the personal connection members of congress had with constituents seems to matter a good deal less. Decline of pork & district spending.
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It’s strange to adjust for money, given that fundraising is plausibly part of incumbency advantage.
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Is there a D vs.R bias?
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Sounds like control of the House will be entirely based on the National mood/gerrymandering
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Hard to explain victories by Manchin (WV), Tester (MT), Brown (OH) without incumbency. Open seat in WV and MT, there's no way Dems hold those.
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Never say never. You are way underestimating the impact of healthcare. As long as the Republicans continue with this, they will continue to lose seats
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