JavaScript is not available.

Mar 10, 2021

I've been shocked to hear several sources I respect get the midterm seat loss story wrong. So here is my effort to clarify. 1. The president's party almost always loses House seats, but there have been *4* exceptions since 1862: 1902, 1934, 1998 & 2002. 1/n

125

315

Show this thread

Jae Yeon Kim @jaeyeonkim@fosstodon.org

@JaeJaeykim2

Feb 2

norc.org/WorkingAtNORC/ Full-time summer paid internship at NORC at the University of Chicago. For individuals with an interest in the social sciences, survey research, data analysis, and research methods

norc.org

Summer Internships at NORC at the University of Chicago | NORC.org

NORC at the University of Chicago's Summer Internship Program offers nine-week paid positions designed to give upper-level undergraduates and graduate students exposure to all facets of the research...

uncpolisci

@uncpolisci

Feb 1

The American Politics Research Group is proud to welcome

@SusanYackee

on Friday, February 3rd to present: "The Latitude to Decide: Explaining Public Agency Policy Discretion" Reach out to

@emilyommundsen

for details about attending

Is Trump Way Up or Way Down?

Feb 3

Here is a (supposedly) non-paywalled link to Nate's article in NYTimes today. By all means give it a read. \end

nytimes.com

The polls are surprisingly divided, but higher-quality surveys point to an answer.

It is really important to stress we are watching a dynamic process as it unfolds, NOT predicting final outcomes. Trump is ramping up criticism of DeSantis. Does that change things in upcoming polls? When (if) DeSantis enters the race is another test. There's a long way to go 6/n

I think the most revealing results we have in

is DeSantis is very appealing to PRO-TRUMP Republicans. His fav rating is strong with those Reps also fav to Trump & those Reps who want Trump to run. His threat to Trump is that he's popular _inside_ Trump's house. 5/n

Here is a comparison of want Trump and want DeSantis to run by party ID for the latest, January 2023

national poll (all these tweets are based on our national polls, not our Wisconsin only polls.) 4/n

Another trend for want Trump to run, and shows the difference between those who are more partisan Republicans and those independents who lean Rep. (How these are included or not also affects the cross-pollster comparison in Nate's article.) 3/n

I'd also stress value of comparative favorability among Reps And comparison of ONE poll over time with same methodology each time removes noise due to multiple pollsters w varying methodology. This emphasizes trend change w most comparable data available Favs

2/n

Nate Cohn has a look at widely varying polls on Trump 2024, including my

. Worth a read It is hard to get apples-to-apples comparisons. Different question (long list of candidates or DeSantis-Trump head-to-head), RVs or likely primary voters, Reps or Reps+Lean 1/n

On overturning Roe v Wade's abortion rights, 65% of adults oppose that decision 34% favor. For Reps, 63% favor striking down Roe, for Dems 87% oppose. However this plays out in state & natl races in 2024 candidates for each party face unified party bases, & huge party difference

On same-sex marriage over 2/3 of the public favor, 1/3 oppose. However Reps are evenly split w slight majority (54%) opposed. Dems 87% in favor. 3/n

The public at large is evenly split on banning trans athletes from competing. But 82% of Reps favor a ban, 71% of Dems oppose. However, large majorities, including Reps favor recent SCOTUS decision that anti-discrimination law protects LGBTQ in workplace. 2/n

Issues related to gender are shaping up to play a substantial role in 2024 Here a look at four items: bans on trans athletes, anti-discrimination law for LGBTQ people, same-sex marriage and abortion. Mostly large party differences frame candidate messages, esp. for primary 1/n

Show this thread

MPL Foundation

@MPLFoundation

Feb 1

Submit a question for our event — “The Wisconsin Vote: Partisanship, Polling, and Public Opinion”— featuring Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin

@pollsandvotes

at noon Thursday 2/23. Send questions to events@mplfoundation.org and register: bit.ly/3wazREj

Jan 31

Kicker. Under half those living in states with permitless carry laws are aware that is the law. A third don't know, and 22% erroneously believe it is not the law Guns laws are often hotly debated. But even in permitless carry states about half are not informed about the law /end

Concealed carry, with a license, has won widespread majority support, though Dems still oppose. Permitless carry has far less support, including among Rep gun owners. It is more popular with legislators than with their constituents, in half the states w permitless carry. 8/n

What about opinion by party by state law? Maybe legislators respond to a majority of their partisans? Again there is wide support for licensed carry, but majorities of all party groups oppose unlicensed carry even in states with permitless carry laws. 7/n

And yet half the states have permitless carry laws. Are opinions very different in those states? Similar majorities support licensed carry in states regardless of state law requiring a permit or not. A 71% majority oppose permitless carry in states where that is the law. 6/n

Putting party and ownership together shows higher support among Reps & owners, with majorities for licensed carry in all groups except Dem non-owners. No party-owner combination has a majority in favor of unlicensed carry. Even Rep gun owners split 42-58, a majority opposed 5/n

Gun owners are more in favor of concealed cary than non-owners. For licensed carry 79% of owners and 50% of non-owners favor carry. Majorities of both gun owners and non-owners oppose concealed carry without a license requirement. 4/n

Partisans differ on concealed carry with a permit. Majorities of Rep and Ind favor licensed carry while majority of Dems oppose. Substantial majorities of all 3 partisan groups oppose concealed carry WITHOUT a license. 3/n

A solid majority of American adults favor concealed carry WITH a license. A solid majority oppose concealed carry WITHOUT a license. (

national surveys, May & Sept. 2022.) 2/n

Florida lawmakers have proposed a "bill removing Florida requirements for a permit and training to carry concealed guns." Florida would be far from alone. 25 states currently have "permitless" carry laws. Let's look at public opinion on this. 1/n Story orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-fl

Seaweed soup from New Seoul restaurant in Madison is a great comfort food on a cold cold night. One of our favorites. newseoulmadison.com/about.php

Jan 31

Whatever her political strengths, Harris isn't strikingly weak in favorability measures. She trails Biden, as VPs do. She is a bit better than her predecessor Pence, and is mixed vs Buttigieg who is much less known than Harris. Let the chatter continue. But do note the data too

Compare Harris with Biden. Pres always better known, of course. Similarly neg with Reps. Lots of Inds don't know Harris. Lean Dem and Dems like both but more net fav to Biden. Would be unusual for VP to outdo Pres. 4/n

Compare Harris with Buttigieg. Both ran for Pres in 2020. Buttigieg far less well known than Harris now, making direct fav-unfav comparison difficult. Net better for Buttigieg overall but mixed by party. 3/n

Compare Harris with the previous vice-president, Mike Pence. Harris a little better in her party than Pence in his. Neither does well with independents and are very unfavorable with opposite party. Each about as well known. 2/n

Wash Post has a story on Kamala Harris and "some Democrats" who doubt her political strength. Judge the story as you will. Here are some data on her favorability rating in

national polls, Nov. 2021-Jan 2023. Net negative (so is Biden, Trump, Pence) little trend 1/n

Show this thread

New R Package {clarify}: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results

Gary King

@kinggary

Jan 30

Did you use Clarify for Stata but would like to do it in R? Or maybe you used {Zelig} for R (before it retired)? Welcome to our new R package {clarify}: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results

iq.harvard.edu

Data Science Services at IQSS has released a new R package {clarify} to provide functionality previously provided by the {Zelig} package

350

Junk drawer

Ca 1918

1972

1940

1976

1968

1972

Lots of 2024 talk with Trump in NH & SC today, also articles in many places. Here my GOP support for Trump & for DeSantis running. And Trend for Trump w Reps & Rep leaners. No trend available for DeSantis