Great read from the on the many independent moves that will make this November election very interesting #springst pollbludger.net/2022/08/25/vic
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William Bowe
@PollBludger
Editor of the Australian electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger.
pollbludger.netJoined April 2009
William Bowe’s Tweets
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World's largest country, with a shortage of young people, sacrifices young people to try to grab more land.
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Introducing (sort of) "Call of the Board", a series that will look in depth at the results of each of the 151 seats at the May 22 federal election, starting with the 15 of inner Sydney: pollbludger.net/2022/08/28/cal
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*Twelve* candidates for WA's North West Central by-election on September 17 (Labor not among them), for a seat with only 11,189 voters. elections.wa.gov.au/about-us/media
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The CLP holds a raw lead of 837-827 in the Fannie Bay by-election, but the pre-polls are in and those were the best for them in 2020. Labor will hold if those patterns are repeated. pollbludger.net/2022/08/20/fan
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Northern Territory's Fannie Bay by-election looking like a cliffhanger, despite existing Labor margin of 9.6% pollbludger.net/2022/08/20/fan
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Polls have closed for Northern Territory's Fannie Bay by-election, which will choose a successor to former Chief Minister Michael Gunner. I'll be following the count here: pollbludger.net/2022/08/20/fan
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Scott Morrison, federal member for Cook.
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Scott Morrison to Sky News: "No, haven't seen what he [Albanese] has said. Since leaving the job I haven't engaged in any day-to-day politics." #auspol
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Which part of "(Ministers of State) shall hold office during the pleasure of the Governor-General" am I not understanding?
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An appraisal of the polls' performance at the federal election, featuring many graphs. pollbludger.net/2022/07/22/the
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But they haven't published it ... yet?
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Replying to @benraue and @kevinbonham
No because the AEC code didn’t produce 2PP throws by candidate by electorate, only 2CP. I explained the issue to the AEC IT people and they’ve fixed it for this election.
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It's "can", not should
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Actually you shouldn't call Paul Simon Al. That's not actually his name.
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A post on what it might mean electorally to allow permanent residents from NZ to vote, plus other electoral reform proposals floated by the government: pollbludger.net/2022/07/11/kiw
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Hmm
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A new @RoyMorganAus poll shows the Andrews Government is on track to increase its already large majority in parliament at the November election
2PP:
ALP 59.5%.
LNP 40.5%
@abcmelbourne #springst
roymorgan.com/findings/8998-
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The most recent booth results have steadied the ship for the Liberals. They have the barest of leads on TCP, but will presumably add to it on postals.
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The first TCP result in #braggvotes is in, and a strong preference flow means Labor has narrowly won a booth that pretty reasonably representative of the electorate as a whole. This could get interesting. pollbludger.net/2022/07/02/bra
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The first TCP result in #braggvotes is in, and a strong preference flow means Labor has narrowly won a booth that pretty reasonably representative of the electorate as a whole. This could get interesting. pollbludger.net/2022/07/02/bra
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Two booths in from the blue-ribbon Adelaide state seat of Bragg in today's by-election, and I'm projecting a swing against the Liberals of nearly 6% in a seat they held by 8.2% after a big swing against them in March. #braggvotes pollbludger.net/2022/07/02/bra
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Poor planning policy is only one contributor to making Australians unable to buy their own homes. But when our slowest population growth is in inner suburban electorates like Wentworth & Grayndler (Sydney) and Kooyong & Higgins (Melbourne), things sure have gone haywire.
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Some insights on electoral demographics from this week’s census data release, plus how states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements might look when the matter is determined next year: pollbludger.net/2022/06/30/com
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Curtin was #16. Federal electorates tend to be less demographically distinctive in the smaller states.
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Replying to @PollBludger
Surprised Curtin wasn't in the top 10 most affluent electorates this census.
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Some insights on electoral demographics from this week’s census data release, plus how states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements might look when the matter is determined next year: pollbludger.net/2022/06/30/com
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The first data from the 2021 census opened a new window on a federal election result that defied long-established maxims of electoral politics, writes . Here's his breakdown of what the data can tell us about the new political landscape.
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The release of 2021 census data shows that long-held presumptions about safe Liberal seats are now shaky – particularly the assumption that the well-off will always vote Liberal.
William Bowe, aka analysis the shifting political landscape.
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There's a link here to a document that may be illuminating, where it says "personal employee positions": aph.gov.au/About_Parliame
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Replying to @JoshButler
the bit about the Greens doesn't seem quite right. Unless things have changed dramatically, back when I worked in the Senate all (or at least most) the personal staff were in the leader's office while other Senators relied on their electorate staff for parliamentary work.
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Seems there are 461 TPP votes still unaccounted for in Mayo?
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Melbourne 2PP result: 77.9-22.1 to Labor, a 10.1% swing to Labor.
Cooper 2PP: 25.5-24.5 to Labor, a 0.8% swing to the Libs.
Final for VIC: 54.8-45.2 to Labor, a 1.7% swing to Labor.
FINAL FOR AUS: 52.1-47.9 to Labor, a 3.7% swing to Labor. #springst @kevinbonham @mumbletwits
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Roy Morgan has the first (published) voting intention poll since the election:
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I have considered this possibility at length in a new update to my post: pollbludger.net/2022/06/17/lat
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Replying to @sorceror43 and @PollBludger
Looking at SA there's a huge shift off UAP but nobody else changes much. If that's all it is ON struggle to get over Lib and even if they do get over Lib are a lesser threat to ALP. The Aus Christians prefs were much weaker for them than Libs in 2019.
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Labor did quite a bit worse on pre-poll than election day booths, such that the result now looks more like a typical anti-government by-election swing. #callidevotes
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No real surprises from #callidevotes. The entry of One Nation has drawn about 15% off the LNP, but otherwise status quo. A clear win for the LNP in a safe seat, but Labor would probably be content that their primary vote appears to be holding up. pollbludger.net/qld2022by1/Res
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No real surprises from #callidevotes. The entry of One Nation has drawn about 15% off the LNP, but otherwise status quo. A clear win for the LNP in a safe seat, but Labor would probably be content that their primary vote appears to be holding up. pollbludger.net/qld2022by1/Res
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Final score in race for the last two Qld Senate seats: Hanson 14.2%, Chisholm 13.9%, Stoker 10.3%, So Stoker never really had a prayer. Further suggests tighter preferencing between right-wing minors this election, which is good news for UAP in Victoria. pollbludger.net/2022/06/17/lat
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Senate preference data from SA suggests the UAP are a strong show to poach the last seat in Victorian from Liberal Greg Mirabella: pollbludger.net/2022/06/14/lat
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At the final distribution, David Pocock had 103,618 votes (36.3%) and Zed Seselja had 81,485 (28.6%)
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The ACT and NT Senate distributions are up: tallyroom.aec.gov.au/External/Senat tallyroom.aec.gov.au/External/Senat
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The ACT and NT Senate distributions are up: tallyroom.aec.gov.au/External/Senat tallyroom.aec.gov.au/External/Senat
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Will the full distribution of preferences be published at 10am and 11am, or just the announcement of the results?
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In addition to the ACT, the capture & verification of preferences for the NT Senate has also concluded.
The distribution of preferences for the NT is set to occur at 11am (local time) tomorrow. The final result will be announced here and via a media release. #ausvotes2022
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By-election looming in one of the few non-Labor seats in the WA parliament
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EXCLUSIVE: Vince Catania has dropped a bombshell on the WA National Party by announcing his resignation from State politics, plunging the depleted Liberal-National Alliance into further disarray. bit.ly/395E6cb
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Let's make it happen
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If you blended all 7.88 billion ppl on Earth into a fine goo (density of a human=985 kg/m3, average human body mass=62 kg), you would end up with a sphere of human goo just under 1 km wide. This is a visualization of how that would look like in Central Park.
© reddit/kiwi2703
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US pollster Morning Consult's regular international leadership approval survey has Albanese on 51% approval and 25% disapproval (HT: ).
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