One might reasonably conclude that the laws of physics naturally progress to the rise of sentience. It may take time, it may be very rare, but it may also be an inevitable outcome.https://twitter.com/plinz/status/968594439299092483 …
What puzzles me is that it took so long. There is going to be <9Bn years of biosphere total, and the first generally intelligent species took >1Bn? That might mean that evolution has a tendency to run into local optima that can only be perturbed by meteors or super volcanoes.
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Sometimes you have to destroy a world to save it. In a manner of speaking, catastrophic events yield a random refactoring that breaks you out of a local minimum.
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Yes. And humanity is such an event, too. I would like to leave messages in orbit and throughout the lithosphere that can be found by our intellectual successors in 50 million or 500 million years from now.
End of conversation
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I suspect that the first cell was extremely unlikely, but getting to general intelligence after the first cell might be a very decent two digit probability.
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