I have to admit that I am personally absolutely clueless wrt the economics an technology of tunneling, so my opinion is worthless. I just have the intuition that Elon Musk is smart and capable enough to buy and create more cognition on it than Spain.
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Indeed you are clueless then. Spain is the world’s civil engineering leader, they’ve proven themselves far more times than Elon Musk has in this field.
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I am genuinely curious: in your view, how would you quantify the probability that you know more about tunneling and possible business cases than Elon Musk's company at this point? I wonder how much of your position is driven by deep expertise and how much by being annoyed?
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I'll turn the question around to you: how much of your position here is driven by being annoyed, and how much is driven by your background on the topic? Because you've already admitted to being "clueless" about tunneling...
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I noticed that annoyance did indeed play a role for me, and maybe it was unjustified! I think that Elon Musk has a track record of disrupting what everybody thought they knew, and his detractors have a track record of being wrong, but that may distort my view here.
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I would like to meet the person with a passing familiarity with tunneling who thinks that Elon might be onto something. I have yet to find that person
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That seemed to be the same pattern when he decided to build a high end car from scratch: the car industry made similar noises as Nokia did when Apple announced a smartphone. I might be pattern matching too much, but otoh Musk has institutional support.
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Did he ever say any whopper about cars like "halving tunnel diameter reduces costs by a factor of 3-4"?
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It strikes me that today's market for tunneling machines looks vaguely similar to the market for launch vehicles before SpaceX came along.
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So efficient that it is no longer the binding constraint?
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So that there are two major players with little frequency of innovation in a market of extremely large scale projects that are do a large degree paid for by governments?
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That's not how I would describe the global tunneling industry
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