All scientific domains with policy relevance tend to have publication bias in one way or the other. Whenever scientists are more afraid to err in one way than the other, the distribution of probabilistic claims tends to be skewed from ground truth. #climate #econ #iq #vaccines
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https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming … corrected my impression:
#IPCC and other reports were on average spot-on. Re "2100": Maybe convenience & avoiding alarmist impression? Farther away future by definition less certain => more space for horror scenarios => high risk of "open flanks"? -
Note that in the 1970ies and 1980ies it was still widely acceptable to be alarmist (and perhaps it was even encouraged). The war on climate science took off when the warners started to get influence on policy, and is probably now abating, so the story is complicated.
End of conversation
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