All scientific domains with policy relevance tend to have publication bias in one way or the other. Whenever scientists are more afraid to err in one way than the other, the distribution of probabilistic claims tends to be skewed from ground truth. #climate #econ #iq #vaccines
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Have you compared the
@IPCC_CH reports over time with the actual measurements? I got the _impression_ of exactly that effect occurring. Maybe due to allowance of governmental influence on wording. Looked at ministerial change requests once: way more conservative than alarmist. -
Yes, and not just due to governments. If you want to make sure that you don't open flanks to the warming denialists, you may try to argue the case that is easiest to defend, i.e. the most conservative one. (But that does not explain why most discussion of warming stops in 2100.)
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I guess that means that scientific dogma is more resistant to empirical evidence the further it deviates from what is known/being taught.
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