Totalitarian states are incentivized to keep you productive and aligned. (Even if they might do a poor job, and may use terror for alignment.) But civil war means that there is no food production, no way to build homes and infrastructure.
I don't think that you are free to just pick the interpretation you like. Map the space of possibilities and assign probabilities. I think it is ...not fully unlikely... that liberalist pluralist society's ambitions are currently failing.
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No, what I am saying is that you probably cannot know. The idea that you are free to pick a conviction in the absence of evidence is fundamentally wrong.
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