On a positive note, I am optimistic that near term AI technology will mostly obliterate bullshit jobs (transport, retail, packaging), while making the services of experts dramatically better and affordable. There will be a lot more quality jobs, including entirely new professions
I don't know how to put any probability estimates on it, but self improving AI is quite certainly possible, and a sigmoid is the default pattern one would expect, no?
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Most technology adoption happens in sigmoid fashion as
@asymco shows again and again. But what I wonder is if we’re really up to sth or in some dead-end street regarding neural networks… -
Convnets and stochastic gradient descent are probably not the right answer. But it might be that meta learning breakthroughs, new ways of adaptive credit assignment, autocompositional reward optimizer networks, or function agnostic Gibbs samplers are just around the corner?
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