I think that Russia, like all other large nation state players, are best modeled as rational incentive maximizing agents
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too little real data and too much outrage by non-foreign-policy experts on this one!
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well, not a war with themselves in the middle of it
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war happens when there is benefit in it and showing the instruments is not sufficient to extort them peacefully
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China is almost certainly not a nest, but a rational actor, pretending to be a nest to get what it wants.
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"but i wanted us to achieve that!"
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