Nate Silver thinks Trump has a 20% chance of becoming president. (He gave him a 2% chance of getting nominated) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-has-a-20-percent-chance-of-becoming-president/ …
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Replying to @Plinz
If I remember correctly the changes for a brexit calculated by bookmakers were at 28 % …
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Replying to @_kai_ku
If you read how he estimated, it seems that polls are sonetimes less predictive than the strategies influencing them
12:11 AM - 1 Jul 2016
from Neighborhood 9, Cambridge
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