Interesting lecture from C19 disaster is that there is a threshold where people smart enough to understand the limitations of their understanding can deliver better predictions than experts with bad social incentives. Incentivizing group think can be dangerous.
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Replying to @Plinz
I think you are right but do you have a specific example? Unless ‚social incentives’ = institutional behavior, not individual experts
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Replying to @fabianstelzer
Institutional behavior is exactly the problem. We don't reward experts to give their best knowledge according to their deepest conscience. We often ask them to emulate the conscience of the institution that pays them and covers their butt if the institution gets things wrong
2 replies 4 retweets 27 likes -
Replying to @Plinz @fabianstelzer
That is the essence of the
@PTetlock critique of most expert judgment . Accurate prediction is not as strongly incentivized as one might naively expect.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Yes, and it carries over into the perpetration of science as the application of methods instead of the search for truth
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