Interesting lecture from C19 disaster is that there is a threshold where people smart enough to understand the limitations of their understanding can deliver better predictions than experts with bad social incentives. Incentivizing group think can be dangerous.
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Replying to @Plinz
I think you are right but do you have a specific example? Unless ‚social incentives’ = institutional behavior, not individual experts
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Replying to @fabianstelzer
Institutional behavior is exactly the problem. We don't reward experts to give their best knowledge according to their deepest conscience. We often ask them to emulate the conscience of the institution that pays them and covers their butt if the institution gets things wrong
2 replies 4 retweets 27 likes
Replying to @Plinz @fabianstelzer
Concrete examples: Redfield sticks around, Messonier gets demoted
2:02 AM - 17 May 2020
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