Interesting lecture from C19 disaster is that there is a threshold where people smart enough to understand the limitations of their understanding can deliver better predictions than experts with bad social incentives. Incentivizing group think can be dangerous.
-
-
Concrete examples: Redfield sticks around, Messonier gets demoted
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
That is the essence of the
@PTetlock critique of most expert judgment . Accurate prediction is not as strongly incentivized as one might naively expect. -
Yes, and it carries over into the perpetration of science as the application of methods instead of the search for truth
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.