I think you are right but do you have a specific example? Unless ‚social incentives’ = institutional behavior, not individual experts
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Institutional behavior is exactly the problem. We don't reward experts to give their best knowledge according to their deepest conscience. We often ask them to emulate the conscience of the institution that pays them and covers their butt if the institution gets things wrong
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1. We need better visibility of these things and it’s not hard to do: - per capita currently active cases - per sq km currently active cases The above reflect actual risk of infection risk. Make these as granular as possible ie by postcode not just country or state. ....CT’s
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2. - % of all tests that test positive. If it’s high, more testing needed eg most of Africa. If low, actual cases are being detected pretty well - % of all cases that are currently active This is a good indication of where on the curve and what’s coming: Use RO rate/death rate
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Was the lecture recorded? Please post a link to any materials.
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3. I track the world by country stats every day to glean insights. I feel like instead of the planned 2020 Olympics, I’m watching a macabre alternative: the COVID Olympics. Oceania is winning by a mile & it’s no news to anyone that USA win the wooden spoon. Happy to be in AUS!
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Where u stand on the issue depends on where ur sitting.
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Common sense works. We have witnessed the Popperian philosophy in daily practice. “Conjectures and Refutations.”
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