How is possible for ~3 million N.Y.ers to have had covid? With 2-day doubling, that'd take 1 1/2 months. Lockdown began mid-March, so the virus would have had to start spreading at the start of February, implying the first death in mid-Feb. Yet the first wasn’t until mid-March.
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Replying to @gmusser
Seems like it was probably faster than 2-day doubling
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Replying to @lacker
It does. But when the did the probability of geting covid begin to exceed that of getting the flu? There is a background level of influenza that is mixed in with these anecdotes.
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It's in principle possible that NYC had some superspreading events early on (subway vending machines etc.); remember patient 31
6:14 PM - 23 Apr 2020
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