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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 19
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      Replying to @Plinz @movonw

      We have no choice but to accept the price. Bizarre reasoning to think otherwise. We don’t live in a SciFi novel where we escape to a safe space and it will be over soon! Equally bizarre to think we find a vaccine for a Corona virus. Possibly but not likely. Accept it.

      4 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    2. RealTomPaine1737‏ @tom_paine1737 Apr 21
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      Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @Plinz @movonw

      I don't think this is quite right. We might indeed find a vaccine. The problem is that the chance of _not_ finding a vaccine is high enough that we need to plan for the scenario that we don't create one, and give it a high weight.

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. alrightythen‏ @jeeezelouise Apr 21
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      Replying to @tom_paine1737 @BurnerZeugirdor and

      We have never successfully created a vaccine for any coronavirus. None ever.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 21
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      Replying to @jeeezelouise @tom_paine1737 and

      We don't have one for SARS either. Sorry but the Vaccine People are totally grifting this one. Possible? Sure. Probable? Not. Gotta power through and take the losses.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 21
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      Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @jeeezelouise and

      Vaccines against coronaviruses exist, mostly for poultry. SARS vaccine development was stopped once SARS died out. In principle, we might also develop tests that analyze breath spectroscopically, and deploy breathalizers on all airports

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 21
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      Replying to @Plinz @jeeezelouise and

      I am not a chicken with highly compromised immune systems. (Actually worked a chicken farm project) Sure, lots of positives from research but to raise hopes when similar efforts yielded ZERO. Yeah, maybe. Possible. Not likely. Like >50%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 21
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      Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @Plinz and

      <50%. And what about vaccine side effects? Or is that verboten?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 21
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      Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @Plinz and

      I trust our immune system more than I trusted politicians and scientists who spending money in pursuits of empires. Because scientists lie all the time. Always for money and position.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 21
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      Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @jeeezelouise and

      You don't have to blindly trust them. There are good informal networks of competent people, across institutions, companies, universities and hospitals, which relentlessly vet their own thoughts through the feedback of others. Rants on twitter are not a good alternative.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 21
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      Replying to @Plinz @jeeezelouise and

      Could not agree more but given where we are we have two options. 1) Trust our immune systems knowing IFR is less than 0.3% 2) Wait in a pine box for a rushed-to-market vaccine that may never even exist. So ... number 1 it is. Not a rant, logic.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 21
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      Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @jeeezelouise and

      Where do you take the 0.3% from? That's not consistent with the Diamond Princess, for instance, or the lower bounds we get from NYC. Also note that C19 often produces lasting organ damage (lung, brain, kidneys) even in many mild cases, and it's not clear if survivors are immune.

      4:50 PM - 21 Apr 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • RealTomPaine1737 ⛛² Gradient Descent David Ford
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Tyler‏ @tyler_2023 Apr 21
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          Replying to @Plinz @BurnerZeugirdor and

          Also wondering where the less than 0.3% comes from. Oxford's CEBM cautiously is saying 0.36%, with lots of uncertainty. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ …pic.twitter.com/9V6ANrEr7z

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 21
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          Replying to @tyler_2023 @BurnerZeugirdor and

          The Oxford paper does not seem to be interested in establishing upper and lower boundaries on CFR, but tries to collect arguments to get the rate down. It's ignoring the Diamond Princess data and the known excess in all-cause mortality in Italy.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. BurnerZeugirdor‏ @BurnerZeugirdor Apr 21
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          Replying to @Plinz @jeeezelouise and

          Stanford Study? USC? Prison Populations with zero deaths in Ohio? US Navy Boat? Diamond Princess was a geriatric ward. What did you think would happen? Folks the data is now everywhere. This is worse than flu for the elderly and not as bad for the young.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 21
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          Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @jeeezelouise and

          Please don't take it personally, but I get the impression that your opinions are stronger than your proclivity to read the actual studies? That's fine, but it may be pointless to discuss.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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