Does this mean we can now throw the herd immunity plan out the window?
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Replying to @movonw
This was always the issue: we don't know if we can afford the price for herd immunity. We don't even know if we get herd immunity at all!
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We have no choice but to accept the price. Bizarre reasoning to think otherwise. We don’t live in a SciFi novel where we escape to a safe space and it will be over soon! Equally bizarre to think we find a vaccine for a Corona virus. Possibly but not likely. Accept it.
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I don't think this is quite right. We might indeed find a vaccine. The problem is that the chance of _not_ finding a vaccine is high enough that we need to plan for the scenario that we don't create one, and give it a high weight.
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Replying to @tom_paine1737 @BurnerZeugirdor and
We have never successfully created a vaccine for any coronavirus. None ever.
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Replying to @jeeezelouise @tom_paine1737 and
We don't have one for SARS either. Sorry but the Vaccine People are totally grifting this one. Possible? Sure. Probable? Not. Gotta power through and take the losses.
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Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @jeeezelouise and
Vaccines against coronaviruses exist, mostly for poultry. SARS vaccine development was stopped once SARS died out. In principle, we might also develop tests that analyze breath spectroscopically, and deploy breathalizers on all airports
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Replying to @Plinz @jeeezelouise and
I am not a chicken with highly compromised immune systems. (Actually worked a chicken farm project) Sure, lots of positives from research but to raise hopes when similar efforts yielded ZERO. Yeah, maybe. Possible. Not likely. Like >50%.
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Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @Plinz and
<50%. And what about vaccine side effects? Or is that verboten?
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Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @Plinz and
I trust our immune system more than I trusted politicians and scientists who spending money in pursuits of empires. Because scientists lie all the time. Always for money and position.
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You don't have to blindly trust them. There are good informal networks of competent people, across institutions, companies, universities and hospitals, which relentlessly vet their own thoughts through the feedback of others. Rants on twitter are not a good alternative.
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Replying to @Plinz @jeeezelouise and
Could not agree more but given where we are we have two options. 1) Trust our immune systems knowing IFR is less than 0.3% 2) Wait in a pine box for a rushed-to-market vaccine that may never even exist. So ... number 1 it is. Not a rant, logic.
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Replying to @BurnerZeugirdor @jeeezelouise and
Where do you take the 0.3% from? That's not consistent with the Diamond Princess, for instance, or the lower bounds we get from NYC. Also note that C19 often produces lasting organ damage (lung, brain, kidneys) even in many mild cases, and it's not clear if survivors are immune.
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