Somebody needs to explain the concept of picking a sensible null hypothesis. This is a grossly misleading misuse of the phrase "there is no evidence".https://twitter.com/DrChristineMann/status/1246262180766457857 …
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Replying to @Plinz
"In this extended interview, Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University cautions that we do not have reliable data to make long-term decisions about COVID-19, and that an extended lockdown might have far graver effects than the disease itself." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g …
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Replying to @hanswaldmann @hodl_squirrel
Exactly. "Might" is misleading, because it suggests that the expected payoff (based on a cost/benefit distribution and success probability) of the "let it burn" strategy is larger than for "exterminate it". I am worried that he did not even try to do that calculation for himself.
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Replying to @Plinz @hanswaldmann
He's advocating for more accurate statistics and reliable data to make more intelligent long-term decisions. Isn't that the interest of every diligent scientist?
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Replying to @hodl_squirrel @hanswaldmann
He is not talking to a grant agency but to a journalist. This is not how his statements will be interpreted.
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Replying to @Plinz @hanswaldmann
Do you, as a scientist, agree that we need better data to make more intelligent decisions? E.g. trying to differentiate better between "died with corona" vs "died from corona"? Or performing a study with a representative sample to understand the actual fatality better?
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We can probably look at the change in all cause mortality to make a good-enough decision. We also have lots of reliable data points from China, South Korea and Italy. The reasons why we don't put data together in the right way might be more political than scientific.
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