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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

Tweets

Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Naval‏ @naval Apr 6
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      Every Asian Tiger that bent the curve has, in addition to massive testing, airtight borders. Are we ready for that on a state-by-state level?

      109 replies 185 retweets 1,567 likes
    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Apr 6
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      Replying to @naval

      Once R0 goes below 1, the relationship to the border can change. Each additional case imported causes a finite number of new cases, not an exponential spread. Still likely need testing and certain types of isolation. But R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 are very different worlds.

      6 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
    3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 6
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @naval

      As long as you are importing new cases, you cannot lift the lockdowns.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Creature‏ @thrownone Apr 6
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      Replying to @Plinz @michael_nielsen @naval

      Yup. Herd immunity or vaccine are the only end game. My HOPE is that they orders of magnitude more cases than known. That means we are closer to HI than we think.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 6
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      Replying to @thrownone @michael_nielsen @naval

      We are currently playing for eradicating the virus. It's not even clear if we get sufficient herd immunity if we accept millions of deaths and disabilities.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Creature‏ @thrownone Apr 6
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      Replying to @Plinz @michael_nielsen @naval

      What do you mean by eradicating? A vaccine?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 6
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      Replying to @thrownone

      No. If you prevent new infections, you get rid of the virus in a few weeks.

      6:30 PM - 6 Apr 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Deborah Lew
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Creature‏ @thrownone Apr 6
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          Replying to @Plinz

          Is that really possible? China couldn't contain it in Wuhan, now it's in every country. Possibly 10x or more cases than recorded. I thought the best case from social distancing was to slow the rate of increase? Eradication from distancing seems impossible.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 6
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          Replying to @thrownone

          China got at least very close to containing it in Wuhan. It's not clear if they lifted the lockdown too early though.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. 1 more reply
        1. Nikita Sokolsky‏ @nsokolsky Apr 6
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          Replying to @Plinz @thrownone

          Getting to a point where there isn't at least 1 infected person in all of US would probably take years. Statistically unlikely.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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