I called this in early Feb and it still drives me nutshttps://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1224174200019009536 …
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Replying to @Plinz
It is very hard to estimate cases accurately, it requires access to a lot of information and sophisticated predictive modeling to do it well. The best place to look for hard info is total deaths across ALL causes compared to previous months. Any kind of spike is a red flag!
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Replying to @AnneCregan
All cause mortality change compared to previous year is an important data point, if you can get it, as we did for Italy (although we have lots of H1N1, too). But we don't know CFR all too well yet, so it does not give us all we need to know about infection rates.
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Of course it is not trivial to get good estimates by combining all available data, but the statistical methodology is relatively clear, and modelers could publish and criticize each other's Jupyter notebooks easily.
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