Let’s have a thread where we double crux about to what extent the US will succeed at suppressing the virus. I think I understand some of the gears here, but other stuff I am confused about. Overall, my model is weak and I want it to be better.
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I also think there are fewer than 50 things this bad (meaning infectious without really good reason) every day in the Bay Area.
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Despite stuff like this, I think lower than 1. I think social contact is at least 75% down. I forget if there’s an easy way to guess at R0 reduction that way though.
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