Just take a second to imagine how badly our civilization would cope with a well-optimized bioweapon as opposed to some random natural zoonotic virus. Imagine this with 3× the asymptotic spread period, a 20% fatality rate, and the same R0.
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Replying to @RokoMijicUK
If the fatality rate had been visibly higher, the airports would have shut down much earlier. I think that this disease may have hit the sweet spot between doing harm and delaying response.
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Replying to @Plinz @RokoMijicUK
I'm also curious about this. Seems like an open question.
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Replying to @JeffLadish @Plinz
As long as the deaths were delayed by a month or so I doubt we would react with a comprehensive travel ban like I suggested in January. People like the monies and any costs of a shutdown are highly concentrated, whereas benefits are diffuse.
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Replying to @RokoMijicUK @Plinz
Yes, this causes me to update that delay to death or hospitalization might be more important than length of incubation period.
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Replying to @JeffLadish @Plinz
Delayed consequences are a big problem because they are a marshmallow test for society as a whole.
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Yes, it's almost as if people are not paid for doing their job proactively, but to opportunistically deal with the present situation.
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