Just take a second to imagine how badly our civilization would cope with a well-optimized bioweapon as opposed to some random natural zoonotic virus. Imagine this with 3× the asymptotic spread period, a 20% fatality rate, and the same R0.
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In mid January when closing down air travel would have been effective, what was our 90% CI for the IFR of covid-19? Did we close flights for SARS, MERS or Ebola?
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IIRC during SARS they thought the IFR was 2% but it was actually 10%...
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I'm also curious about this. Seems like an open question.
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As long as the deaths were delayed by a month or so I doubt we would react with a comprehensive travel ban like I suggested in January. People like the monies and any costs of a shutdown are highly concentrated, whereas benefits are diffuse.
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I too think this hit some sort of sweet spot. There seems to be this inherent tradeoff between infectivity and lethality. SARS 1 was more lethal, less infectious than the SARS 2 nCoV. Ebola is MUCH more lethal, barely infectious by comparison.
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'Why not both' is the problem here. Somebody or something could make a pathogen that's both more lethal and more transmissible.
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