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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

Tweets

Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
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      I have an issue with this kind of projection, that takes the past to be certain. How certain are you that the increase in daily deaths was 357 on March 30, but only 23 on March 31? You have to estimate underreporting to predict the future. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections pic.twitter.com/hRvzTymsz0

      1 reply 3 retweets 40 likes
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    2. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
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      The dramatic amount of underreporting of cases and deaths in Hubei province was obvious, but somehow ignored in WHO and CDC presentations. In Italy, we know that changes in total mortality indicate a factor of 5, compared to numbers confirmed by the medical system.

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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    3. Nikita Sokolsky‏ @nsokolsky Apr 2
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      Replying to @Plinz

      People are treating this pandemic as if we're discussing numbers in a videogame - perfectly accurate and realtime.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
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      Replying to @nsokolsky

      Perhaps this is what we should be doing: collect data at scale, and present them in public, criticizable models of the entire ground truth of the world. The present mode of filtering bad data using bad modeling though mouth pieces with bad incentives is inadequate.

      3:30 PM - 2 Apr 2020
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      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Joseph t∫ukka‏ @josephtsukka Apr 2
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          Replying to @Plinz @nsokolsky

          What about all the research papers which used data from China's official reports ? Should we ignore them ?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
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          Replying to @josephtsukka @nsokolsky

          No, of course not, as long as they treated the data correctly. Good science is always accounting for incomplete and missing data.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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