I am a medical statistician. I've studied this stuff at university, done data analysis for decades, written several NHS guidelines (including one for an infectious disease), and taught it to health professionals. That's why you don't see me making any coronavirus forecasts.
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Replying to @robertstats
People far less expert than you are forced into making back-of-envelope forecasts because they are needed. This isn't a time for academic levels of perfectionism.
8 replies 7 retweets 274 likes -
Replying to @georgemsavva
I think CDC and the like have the expertise they need. There is also a lot of posturing and showcasing which runs the risk of misleading or distracting people from the accurate message. I'd say this is exactly the time for perfectionism.
15 replies 63 retweets 1,153 likes
The CDC has been misleading the public and failed to influence the necessary decisions of the government in January. Much of the necessary information and response was a grassroots effort by networks of academics, tech people and medical professionals.
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