"What's the easiest way I can procure or make (poor man's) surgical masks for myself?" the level of learned helplessness among people making internet posts is going to prompt me to have a meltdown, I swear
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I attempt to be Bayesian.
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Of course, that leaves a large analog area in the middle where it’s not like 3-5 sigma sure thing. And it’s not a zero signal thing. But how do treat things with weak signal? The best answer is more testing.
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And expected-value calculations.
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Why do people think this way? There are true statements that we know cannot be proven, but.. people still act this way.
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Because history is replete with examples of catastrophic policies based on “plausible” and (seemingly) “possible” but unproven scams. Some of what is proposed is going to be valid. But basing policy, risking lives or even mere livelihoods on such proposals is dangerous.
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I would disagree that it’s a proven versus possible. Nearly anything is technically possible. So nowadays contemporary science is about probability. What’s observed to be statistically significant versus random noise and what things are so unlikely as to be virtually impossible.
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