I don't know how trustworthy this model is but it's premise is more plausible than the optimism I've been reading lately.https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b …
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tl;dr by pushing the peak of the outbreak to next winter by having 2 months of social distancing it is worse than if we just how back to work after 2 weeks.
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I can't stress to you enough how little I know what I'm talking about this read it for yourself and come to your own conclusion
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Replying to @granderojo
I thought the same when I saw the Kristof graph in the NYT. Social distancing and mild travel restrictions are not enough and will still get millions killed, unless we find an effective treatment. We need to bring the hammer down and exterminate the virus, which is possible.
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Replying to @Plinz
technological advances aren't inevitable, I'd rather not trick myself into a false sense of security.
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Which means that we need to go full Wuhan on the virus
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