I don't know how trustworthy this model is but it's premise is more plausible than the optimism I've been reading lately.https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b …
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tl;dr by pushing the peak of the outbreak to next winter by having 2 months of social distancing it is worse than if we just how back to work after 2 weeks.
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I can't stress to you enough how little I know what I'm talking about this read it for yourself and come to your own conclusion
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Replying to @granderojo
I thought the same when I saw the Kristof graph in the NYT. Social distancing and mild travel restrictions are not enough and will still get millions killed, unless we find an effective treatment. We need to bring the hammer down and exterminate the virus, which is possible.
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At the moment, the democratic countries cannot force a consensus on such drastic measures, but it will probably happen once the ICUs are full and the screaming starts. When you perform a total lockdown, you get R0<1 and the infection peters out.
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