The slope is lower for countries which went through the shock of SARS 17 years ago and have strong societal norms towards obeying authority. Why think masks are relevant?
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Replying to @chrisfcarroll @Plinz
Because from studies on nurses treating flu patients (same mode of transfer as SARS-CoV-2) the number of infections were divided by 5 if they wore mouth masks. Both surgical masks and P95 masks were as effective.
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Replying to @HenkPoley @chrisfcarroll
Also from studies of parents treating children with flu, where masks reduced infections by 75%. Surgical masks were only slightly less effective (N95 respirators may develop their full potential only when worn with professional training but are still very useful without it).
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Replying to @Plinz @HenkPoley
So the best I've got on this is https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext … which (a) agrees with you both on the carer setting but (b) notes the absence of evidence for broader usefulness [and (c) notes that absence of e ≠e of absence] Is this roughly the current state of knowledge?
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Replying to @chrisfcarroll @HenkPoley
Meta study SARS and masks, UK https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5779801/ … Masks against influenza, medical personell https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5705692/ … https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743514000322 … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31479137 Masks against influenza, householdshttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/ …
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I am unaware of a single study that shows that masks increase the risk of infection (because they give a false sense of security or because they are used incorrectly, as it is stated in the WHO video).
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Replying to @Plinz @chrisfcarroll
"Oh shit, we don't have enough masks for the professionals" seems to be the only reason they say they are not effective now.
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Replying to @HenkPoley @Plinz
which, if they can find a more honest way to say it, is a fair reason to discourage purchase?
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Replying to @chrisfcarroll @HenkPoley
Yes, but not a reason to discourage at-risk populations, delivery and retail workers, bus drivers, airline employees etc. from wearing masks. Also, a reason to encourage people to ask for increasing supply, and even make their own masks in the meantime if necessary.
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A single infected retail worker or TSA employee can easily infect hundreds of households. A single warehouse worker can easily infect hundreds of retail and delivery workers. Telling people that masks don't work is insane.
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There is also the problem that you can at best only convince 60%-80% of the population to not buy masks in this way. To prevent that 20% of the people buy 100% of the existing supply, you have to ration the supply instead of appealing to consumers.
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