Half the population without overwhelming the ICUs sounds extremely unlikely to me. I would bet against this.https://twitter.com/TaylorPearsonMe/status/1242593856014745601 …
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they don't, the paper takes as a given the low proposed mortality. There haven't been real serological surveys, so the direct measurement hasn't been taken. The princess diamond where they did test everyone the R0 is something like 14, so it isn't totally impossible
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it would be a extraordinarily fast spreading virus relative to SARS-1 it seems very unlikely, and even without the surveys Italy will answer this for us since if the mortality is low enough and we see this many bodies, then the infection must be close to ~10%, so yeah v. unlikely
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Another words it’s disgraceful BS. Take their PhDs back.
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I am unable to judge their work, and how they got to their assumptions. I am mostly surprised that it got published in this way.
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