@Plinz Every day you shut down the economy costs $58 billion and saves a *maximum* of 17,906 lives. That's over US $3.25 million dollars for every life saved. Worth it?
Assumptions: US GDP of $65,000 per capita; 2% death rate; US population of 327 million
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Replying to @TRauenbusch
If you accept COVID-19 going through the entire population until you have herd immunity (if that even exists here!), you are looking at higher mortality rates (due to overload of medical system), and between 1M and 15M deaths. Even saving just 1M people should be worth it.
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Replying to @Plinz
This assumes saving 6 million Americans. Saving only 1 million means it costs one $20 million per life saved. Tough to argue that’s worth it. Even cancer treatments cost far less and people don’t get em
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Replying to @TRauenbusch
A 3 month lockdown will not shut down the entire economy, and won't even need to be total outside of the existing hotspots. How do you compute the cost?
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Replying to @Plinz
I assume a complete economic shutdown ($60 billion per day)—- with a half shutdown you are looking at over $1.5 million per life saved.
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Replying to @TRauenbusch
Also note that half the cases will drop out of the workforce for a month, and many will have lasting disabilities. It is also not clear if we get immunity, so we may face the same situation next year if we don't stamp it out.
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It's also not even a half-shutdown. We are probably looking at ~25% unemployment, mostly in non-essential areas (eg Las Vegas is hit very hard, but that won't threaten food supply or technology).
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