@Plinz Every day you shut down the economy costs $58 billion and saves a *maximum* of 17,906 lives. That's over US $3.25 million dollars for every life saved. Worth it?
Assumptions: US GDP of $65,000 per capita; 2% death rate; US population of 327 million
If you accept COVID-19 going through the entire population until you have herd immunity (if that even exists here!), you are looking at higher mortality rates (due to overload of medical system), and between 1M and 15M deaths. Even saving just 1M people should be worth it.
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This assumes saving 6 million Americans. Saving only 1 million means it costs one $20 million per life saved. Tough to argue that’s worth it. Even cancer treatments cost far less and people don’t get em
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A 3 month lockdown will not shut down the entire economy, and won't even need to be total outside of the existing hotspots. How do you compute the cost?
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Btw, it is even possible that rebooting the more brittle parts of the economy is going to improve it as a whole.
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