Hi Joscha -- I've cited your work online. Hope you'll check out my charts and other information at: http://www.gregorytravis.com/SARS-CoV-2/
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Replying to @greg_travis @murmosh
Looks great! Who is the intended audience of your graphs and collected data?
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Originally it was for my own information. Then I wanted to use it as a way to inform my community. Now I want it to get out to the larger world as a way to understand the nature of exponential growth so as to not downplay the threat. More about my motivation in the FAQ
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Replying to @greg_travis @murmosh
I have just read the FAQ. It seems that your estimates for duration, onset, asymptomatic cases don't directly match the current datasets and publications? Staying on top of the available data is hard! For instance: half of the cases on the Diamond Princess were asymptomatic
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I will add references to all of my data in the FAQ ASAP. I do have references to it in the Facebook posts (also on the page). I am extremely skeptical about "asymptomatic" cases but am open to having my mind changed. I've been spending 8+ hours a day on this for three weeks
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And it seems impossible to keep up, but am trying. Again, the claims of asymptomatic cases seem incredible given the number of symptomatic cases -- it would imply an eventual infection percentage well over 50% which I think is epidemiologically problematic.
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Replying to @greg_travis @murmosh
It's also consistent with the South Korean data and explains the projected death rates of the Imperial College study? I would hesitate to assume that the actual experts know more than me; they have been working on this topic for many years...
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South Korea's current death rate is 5%, according to their data (84 dead, 1540 recovered). And that is a heavily sampled population that should let few "minor" or asymptomatic cases fall through the cracks http://www.gregorytravis.com/SARS-CoV-2/CoronaGraphs/SouthKorea_Base.png … http://www.gregorytravis.com/SARS-CoV-2/CoronaGraphs/SouthKorea_Proj.png …
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Replying to @greg_travis @murmosh
South Korea's death rate is between 1% and 5%, probably closer to 2%, I think.
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What do you think of this? South Korea has ... confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%. vs. The US ... has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%. https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3 … They're using cases, not resolutions!
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Yes, but the epidemiologists don't, this is just the PR intern of the WHO I suppose. Internally they will use estimates of the distribution of true cases from 2–4 weeks ago.
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