2d ago, I posted a back-of-the-envelope calculation to show that mitigation alone cannot "flatten the curve" below limits of our healthcare system. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 … Meanwhile, Alison Hill has created a simulator (grey dotted line = capacity limit!): https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/?fbclid=IwAR2aXJT79M2AmZxMdy8jsiEuSC4i7ijU8Av6oB4dmlZIeJ2VQgL7Tt3QGxA …pic.twitter.com/PXTkFm2c2m