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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 13
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      Back-of-the-envelope calculation about why "Flattening the Curve" cannot work in practice, and containment is necessary.https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …

      41 replies 163 retweets 374 likes
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Mar 13
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      Replying to @Plinz

      You seem to be confused about the difference between containment and mitigation. Containment involves aggressive contact tracing and targeted isolation of exposed individuals. Mitigation involves social distancing measures: closing down schools, banning large gatherings, etc.

      4 replies 36 retweets 230 likes
    3. Samuel V. Scarpino‏ @svscarpino Mar 13
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      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @Plinz

      Samuel V. Scarpino Retweeted Samuel V. Scarpino

      His estimates of the total infected is also almost certainly, way, way, way off (even in the no intervention scenario, which is know isn't true any more because govs are moving in the US),https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1238621162151776256?s=20 …

      Samuel V. Scarpino added,

      Samuel V. Scarpino @svscarpino
      Replying to @SimonDeDeo @Plinz
      Our estimates, without any interventions are 5-40% of the population. In China, after accounting for underreporting, Hubei province had between 0.5-1% infected. Outside Hubei provinces were all <<0.1%.
      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Mar 13
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      Replying to @svscarpino @Plinz

      IMO dangerous to be calling this messaging a "deadly delusion" and saying things like "The Curve is a Lie", especially without a basic underlying knowledge of ID epi / public health.

      4 replies 5 retweets 64 likes
    5. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 16
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      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @svscarpino

      Joscha Bach Retweeted Steven Riley

      If the messaging is that the curve can be flattened without severe containment measures, then the messaging is a dangerous. Our governments have been too slow to react!https://twitter.com/SRileyIDD/status/1239650783051886595?s=20 …

      Joscha Bach added,

      Steven Riley @SRileyIDD
      Our Report 9 on #COVID19 shouldn't be a surprise, but its not an easy read. This virus is just too severe. Flattening the curve not so different from containment. As per @WHO, very strong social distancing needed as soon as health care system in danger. https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1239616254555623427 …
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Erez Yoeli‏ @erezyoeli Mar 16
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      Replying to @Plinz @CT_Bergstrom @svscarpino

      I agree with the above feedback. Your analysis is helpful. Your headline isn't. It will be read as, 'there is no point to trying.'

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 16
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      Replying to @erezyoeli @CT_Bergstrom @svscarpino

      Yes, when I realized this, I changed the headline. (However, very few of the readers seem to have misunderstood the message, because they were in the same situation as me before I thought about numbers: they thought that we can get by without decisive government action.)

      8:19 PM - 16 Mar 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Erez Yoeli
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Mar 16
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          Replying to @Plinz @erezyoeli @svscarpino

          Check out the new study from Imperial college: It confirms aspects of your analysis, namely that if you allow the epidemic to sweep through to herd immunity, you exceed healthcare capacity many times over. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …

          2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
        3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Mar 16
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          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @Plinz and

          This seems entirely sensible to me. The aim (at least among my colleagues) with #FlattenTheCurve was never let the epidemic go through the population "slowly". The cost would be much too high. Rather, it gives time for reactive measures once they become politically feasible.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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