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Replying to @rhelmot
Thanks! Flattening the curve has hit it big in the overton window, containment seems to be the more extreme progression from that Joscha's numbers are a good example of a case in which flattening the curve isn't enough. I don't know how to vet numbers for this in general
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And I do not understand the math behind the Gaussian assumption or the SIR model. I'm not drawing a strong conclusion from this article, aside from "dang, my heuristics about this might be off by a lot"
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It's not a Gaussian, but a right skewed distribution, probably with multiple smaller peaks. I just tried to nuke the hope that we can push the curve down into a manageable region by asking people to stop licking door handles
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I honestly don't get everyone nitpicking what you've done. It obviously has a broadly very applicable point-- that we really need to be aiming to eradicate this thing altogether.
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Replying to @raskolnehkov @Plinz and
So cutting out half your social interactions (which would be "flattening the curve") may well effectively help not at all!
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I think that it could suffice if we'd split up into compartmentalized cells, but not as long as 20% don't care (which is why China welded the doors shut where they could not afford to station guards).
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