Mea culpa thread! What were you personally wrong about w/r/t Covid-19? How did you change your mind afterwards? I'll go first: I asked the wrong question here. Afterwards I greatly narrowed my belief about which prices always know better than I do.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976 …
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Replying to @ESYudkowsky
Natália Mendonça Retweeted Joscha Bach
I thought "flattening the curve" was a remotely viable strategy. Learned from
@Plinz that that was wrong.https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1238640283803217920?s=20 …Natália Mendonça added,
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Replying to @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky
Two weeks ago, I thought so too! And I can still be wrong
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The point of flattening the curve was to counter the idea that we should give up now. Even though we can't keep the curve below the line, spreading it out even marginally will save lives, so people should in fact not just go out in public or just not wash their hands.
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If you read the reactions on twitter, you may find that most people thought that "flatten the curve" suggests that the crisis can be managed without lockdowns. I think that is false and dangerous, and will just delay the imposition of effective measures, which is why I wrote this
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I think that the first thing to do is the get the public to reduce their level of exposure in the short term and reduce R slightly now. And as it spreads, I expect that we won't need to do much to convince people to stay home - except for a minority that won't listen at any point
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We cannot use linear measures to stem an exponential tide.
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I hope I'm wrong, but we probably can't use any measures at all to do so in the US. But I'm sure we'll see how well mas quarantine works in the US when it's inevitably tried in another few weeks.
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I don't see why lockdowns won't work. If you force people to stay at home and adequately protect all supply workers, you reduce R0 below 1.
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Replying to @thewiseturtle @Plinz and
Sorry, that's from here:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ …
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