Mea culpa thread! What were you personally wrong about w/r/t Covid-19? How did you change your mind afterwards? I'll go first: I asked the wrong question here. Afterwards I greatly narrowed my belief about which prices always know better than I do.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976 …
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I hope I'm wrong, but we probably can't use any measures at all to do so in the US. But I'm sure we'll see how well mas quarantine works in the US when it's inevitably tried in another few weeks.
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I don't see why lockdowns won't work. If you force people to stay at home and adequately protect all supply workers, you reduce R0 below 1.
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Aren't the available measures in fact exponential? Surely a total lockdown has the same impact on R0 whether you've got 500 cases or 500000?
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A linear change in an logistic curve will reduce impact in the short term by an exponential amount, and not at all in the long term. But the impact we're concerned about isn't the logistic curve, it's the excess above ER capacity, which is a more complex question.
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