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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Mar 14
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      Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted Eliezer Yudkowsky

      Mea culpa thread! What were you personally wrong about w/r/t Covid-19? How did you change your mind afterwards? I'll go first: I asked the wrong question here. Afterwards I greatly narrowed my belief about which prices always know better than I do.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976 …

      Eliezer Yudkowsky added,

      Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account @ESYudkowsky
      It seems to me like the markets don't look like they believe this. Can anyone weigh in with an expert opinion on what the markets would look like if they did? Only reply if you understand efficiency, & that a price describes the relative valuation of the good and the currency. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229209586336489472 …
      68 replies 10 retweets 154 likes
    2. Natália Mendonça‏ @axiomaticdoubts Mar 14
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      Replying to @ESYudkowsky

      Natália Mendonça Retweeted Joscha Bach

      I thought "flattening the curve" was a remotely viable strategy. Learned from @Plinz that that was wrong.https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1238640283803217920?s=20 …

      Natália Mendonça added,

      Joscha Bach @Plinz
      The Curve is a Lie https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 … pic.twitter.com/zs7P8biJFw
      4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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      Replying to @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

      Two weeks ago, I thought so too! And I can still be wrong

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    4. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 14
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      Replying to @Plinz @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

      The point of flattening the curve was to counter the idea that we should give up now. Even though we can't keep the curve below the line, spreading it out even marginally will save lives, so people should in fact not just go out in public or just not wash their hands.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

      If you read the reactions on twitter, you may find that most people thought that "flatten the curve" suggests that the crisis can be managed without lockdowns. I think that is false and dangerous, and will just delay the imposition of effective measures, which is why I wrote this

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 14
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      Replying to @Plinz @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

      I think that the first thing to do is the get the public to reduce their level of exposure in the short term and reduce R slightly now. And as it spreads, I expect that we won't need to do much to convince people to stay home - except for a minority that won't listen at any point

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

      We cannot use linear measures to stem an exponential tide.

      11:22 PM - 14 Mar 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 14
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          Replying to @Plinz @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

          I hope I'm wrong, but we probably can't use any measures at all to do so in the US. But I'm sure we'll see how well mas quarantine works in the US when it's inevitably tried in another few weeks.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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          Replying to @davidmanheim @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

          I don't see why lockdowns won't work. If you force people to stay at home and adequately protect all supply workers, you reduce R0 below 1.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. 2 more replies
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        2. Mark Amery‏ @XplodingCabbage Mar 15
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          Replying to @Plinz @davidmanheim and

          Aren't the available measures in fact exponential? Surely a total lockdown has the same impact on R0 whether you've got 500 cases or 500000?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 15
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          Replying to @XplodingCabbage @Plinz and

          A linear change in an logistic curve will reduce impact in the short term by an exponential amount, and not at all in the long term. But the impact we're concerned about isn't the logistic curve, it's the excess above ER capacity, which is a more complex question.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. 6 more replies

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