This is what we’ve to be prepared for, folks. “Flattening the Curve” is a deadly delusion - Joscha Bach - Mediumhttps://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …
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Here’s
@Plinz curve with numbers:pic.twitter.com/lWnGk8n8sK
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If 10 million patients will need ventilation within a year, for an average of 14 days each, and we have ~100K extra ventilators (https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/United-States-Resource-Availability-for-COVID-19?_zs=9DuAi1&_zl=w9pb6 …), and there are 365 days/yr, doesn't that mean we are off by a factor of ~4? (not great but better than that plot)
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(of course even if it's "only" off by a factor of 4, that's still unbelievably horrible!)
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Replying to @IlanaWitten @Plinz
Yes, it is. BTW,
@Plinz assumed twice as long (4 weeks).1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Yes, I have spelled out the assumptions, and that the compounding depends on the length of the intervention. Also notice that ventilators are just a proxy; not all people needing one need ICU and vice versa. This is not an accurate model but just putting things into perspective.
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