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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Mar 14
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      Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted Eliezer Yudkowsky

      Mea culpa thread! What were you personally wrong about w/r/t Covid-19? How did you change your mind afterwards? I'll go first: I asked the wrong question here. Afterwards I greatly narrowed my belief about which prices always know better than I do.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976 …

      Eliezer Yudkowsky added,

      Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account @ESYudkowsky
      It seems to me like the markets don't look like they believe this. Can anyone weigh in with an expert opinion on what the markets would look like if they did? Only reply if you understand efficiency, & that a price describes the relative valuation of the good and the currency. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1229209586336489472 …
      68 replies 10 retweets 154 likes
    2. Natália Mendonça‏ @axiomaticdoubts Mar 14
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      Replying to @ESYudkowsky

      Natália Mendonça Retweeted Joscha Bach

      I thought "flattening the curve" was a remotely viable strategy. Learned from @Plinz that that was wrong.https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1238640283803217920?s=20 …

      Natália Mendonça added,

      Joscha Bach @Plinz
      The Curve is a Lie https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 … pic.twitter.com/zs7P8biJFw
      4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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      Replying to @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

      Two weeks ago, I thought so too! And I can still be wrong

      3:06 PM - 14 Mar 2020
      • 8 Likes
      • Geffen Avraham Zack M. Davis Scott Armstrong orthonormal Anita Cryptberg Flavien Hirsch 🐘 Natália Mendonça Dr. Anne Klammt
      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 14
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          Replying to @Plinz @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

          The point of flattening the curve was to counter the idea that we should give up now. Even though we can't keep the curve below the line, spreading it out even marginally will save lives, so people should in fact not just go out in public or just not wash their hands.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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          Replying to @davidmanheim @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

          If you read the reactions on twitter, you may find that most people thought that "flatten the curve" suggests that the crisis can be managed without lockdowns. I think that is false and dangerous, and will just delay the imposition of effective measures, which is why I wrote this

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. 6 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Mark Amery‏ @XplodingCabbage Mar 15
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          Replying to @Plinz @axiomaticdoubts @ESYudkowsky

          Mark Amery Retweeted Mark Amery

          I claim no great expertise my best layman's guess is that @Plinz probably IS wrong, by a factor that is plausibly as big as 400x in the best/worse case. See https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238815488790200320 … + https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238818543547961344 … + https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238910638015107076 … + https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238911064630321152 … for the argument.

          Mark Amery added,

          Mark Amery @XplodingCabbage
          Replying to @XplodingCabbage @DavidSKrueger @robertwiblin
          I'm not sure how skeptically to view those stats, nor how well China stats transfer to US/UK or mortality rates to hospitalisation rates. But superficially looks plausible we're talking about 400x difference to the analysis (with each of these two factors contributing 20x).
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Mark Amery‏ @XplodingCabbage Mar 15
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          Replying to @XplodingCabbage @Plinz and

          Of course, even if I'm completely right (and I stress that I don't trust my own answers on this), it doesn't follow that "flattening the curve" is a better strategy than total containment. But it would suggest that it at least is a viable strategy, which is important!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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