Mea culpa thread! What were you personally wrong about w/r/t Covid-19? How did you change your mind afterwards? I'll go first: I asked the wrong question here. Afterwards I greatly narrowed my belief about which prices always know better than I do.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976 …
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The point of flattening the curve was to counter the idea that we should give up now. Even though we can't keep the curve below the line, spreading it out even marginally will save lives, so people should in fact not just go out in public or just not wash their hands.
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If you read the reactions on twitter, you may find that most people thought that "flatten the curve" suggests that the crisis can be managed without lockdowns. I think that is false and dangerous, and will just delay the imposition of effective measures, which is why I wrote this
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I claim no great expertise my best layman's guess is that
@Plinz probably IS wrong, by a factor that is plausibly as big as 400x in the best/worse case. See https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238815488790200320 … + https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238818543547961344 … + https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238910638015107076 … + https://twitter.com/XplodingCabbage/status/1238911064630321152 … for the argument. -
Of course, even if I'm completely right (and I stress that I don't trust my own answers on this), it doesn't follow that "flattening the curve" is a better strategy than total containment. But it would suggest that it at least is a viable strategy, which is important!
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