Back-of-the-envelope calculation about why "Flattening the Curve" cannot work in practice, and containment is necessary.https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …
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Replying to @Plinz
You seem to be confused about the difference between containment and mitigation. Containment involves aggressive contact tracing and targeted isolation of exposed individuals. Mitigation involves social distancing measures: closing down schools, banning large gatherings, etc.
4 replies 36 retweets 230 likes -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @Plinz
In
#Wuhan, the#coronavirus was brought nearly under control by mitigation measures, NOT containment. In big US cities, we are also long past the possibility of containment and policy is reflecting this. We've moved on to mitigation already.4 replies 21 retweets 143 likes -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @Plinz
Nate Boyd Retweeted rat king
Huh? We’re not doing anything close to what they did in Wuhan. https://twitter.com/mikeisaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=21 …https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928 …
Nate Boyd added,
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
The best estimates (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1 …) have R0 in Wuhan down below 1/3 at present. That means even if we *three times as much transmission* as in Wuhan, we can tamp down the virus in the US as well.
2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @Plinz
That is *after* all of the onerous lockdown protocols were implemented, far beyond anything currently even proposed here, so what is your point? Not sure what I’m missing or what you’re missing :)
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
Joscha Bach Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom
I just noticed that Carl Bergstrom has been retweeting an article https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238595494294642689?s=20 … asking for Wuhan style measures rather than handwashing, which means we actually agree. (I just notice that the "flatten the curve" meme is sending the opposite message to most people.)
Joscha Bach added,
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