Back-of-the-envelope calculation about why "Flattening the Curve" cannot work in practice, and containment is necessary.https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …
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Replying to @Plinz
How about flattening the curve in the way that you keep it at just about the capacity of the medical system? You could keep the tails shorter and maybe this is why the reaction is not so strong at first. Apart from that the numbers from China can no longer be trusted.
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Replying to @Plinz
I did. But you assume with drastic measures like in China it would be possible to contain it. When Chinas numbers are wrong - and why the WHO approves it is another story - then what remains is mitigation.
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Replying to @raelianer @Plinz
If you want to contain it, you have to have an infrastructure like Singapur set up before the outbreak. It's too late now.
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Replying to @raelianer @Plinz
Reports like this cast doubt on the official figures:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf3yIGFjvTs …
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Replying to @raelianer @Plinz
Richard Retweeted Professor Ian Donald
This is the strategy for mitigation: https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538 … I doubt that you can contain it for 18 months until you have a vaccine. This is why I think the mitigation strategy is more reasonable and I think China has switched to this already, too.
Richard added,
Professor Ian Donald @iandonald_psych1. The govt strategy on#Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
I don't buy this. We don't even know if anyone if new strains evolve more slowly than immunity progresses.
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Replying to @Plinz
I think we don't have the test capacity for containment. You need time to build it while the virus is spreading already undetected. Global supply chains make it hard to isolate the country. You will keep getting new chains of infection.
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